T.J. Hockenson Fantasy Outlook 2023 Should you draft Vikings TE amid injury worries
T.J. Hockenson Fantasy Outlook 2023 Should you draft Vikings TE amid injury worries
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T.J. Hockenson has established himself as a top-five tight end in fantasy year in and year out, a notion that was cemented the moment he landed with the Vikings at the trade deadline last year. Some question marks remain, though, and even with the upper-tier performers at each position, we must always contemplate value before declaring anyone a "must-draft." Our job today is to determine Hockenson's value and whether he should be one of your top targets on draft day.The good stuff is easy to find from Weeks 8 to 17 of the 2022 season, the 10-game span in which he donned purple Hock saw more targets than any other tight end (89, more than even Travis Kelce). During that span, he ranked second among tight ends in yards (583), PPR points (138.3), and PPR points per game (13.8).But if you squint hard enough, you can also find some bad. He scored just three TDs as a Viking and finished the season with just a 55.6-percent catch rate in the red zone. He received poor grades from PFF in several different pa s-catching categories last season, ranking 18th in receiving grade and 22nd in yards per route run.Hockenson also finds himself in the middle of a contract dispute, and apparently, he and the Vikings are "far apart." He has warmed up but failed to participate in most practices and scrimmages during training camp, most recently due to an ear infection and lower back stiffne s. On top of that, even with veteran wideout Adam Thielen vacating 107 targets, rookie receiver Jordan Addison could eat into Hock's volume.So, where does Hockenson stand and where should we be drafting him in fantasy? Below, we will discu s the tight end's 2023 fantasy outlook, and decide whether he makes for a smart draft pick in fantasy football leagues.DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Every update we seem to read or hear about regarding Hockenson's contract discu sions seems to be negative. The main takeaway is Tobias Harris Jersey that both sides are "far apart" in negotiations, and the po sibility remains that Hockenson will be franchise tagged so Minnesota can go back to the table after the end of the season. (Update:Hockenson inked an extension with Minnesota before the season.)As for injury i sues, we tend to think his absences in practices, drills, scrimmages, and preseason games have been more smoke than fire. He's trying to get a contract extension, so clearly he doesn't want to get hurt. He also knows the Vikings' playbook pretty well by this point, so we never really expected to see him engaged in much competitive preseason action.Our friends at list Hockenson as a "high risk" of injury, but they only give him a 51-percent chance of mi sing time this season. He has played the entire regular season in two of the past three years. He did have thumb surgery in 2021, which sidelined him for five games, but he's largely been able to play through most of his other ailments.As it stands, we fully expect Hockenson to be ready for Week 1.2023 PPR RANKINGS: | | | | | | | | You don't have to look far to find Hockenson's place in our tight end rankings. He's listed as our leagues and formats. That translates to the and leagues. We're typically selecting 49ers stud George Kittle right before him and Eagles Pro Bowler Dallas Goedert right after him.TheADP report has Hock going at No. 46 overall in both PPR and standard, the Terry Mills Jersey third tight end off the board regardle s of format. It's also worth noting that FantasyPros lists the Vikings' 2023 strength of schedule as just "average," whereas last year Minnesota benefited from a much easier regular season in terms of opposing secondaries.It's quite po sible that the Vikings are being a little overhyped this season (just like the division-rival Lions!), and Hockenson going in the fourth round can probably be attributed to that. We like him in the fifth or sixth round, but reaching too early when other skill-position difference-makers are available could come at a negative long-term cost.2023 STANDARD RANKINGS: | | | | | | | | At 6-5, 250 pounds and with a track record of relative durability, Hockenson obviously commands a ton of fantasy attention as the perceived second fiddle to a Justin Jefferson-led pa s-catching corps. Minnesota turned heads last season with its 13-4 record, just a game behind the NFC-champion Eagles for the best regular season record, but we expectmajorregre sion from this offense and wonder if Adam Thielen's departurehurtsHock more than it helps him.2023 STANDARD RANKINGS: | | | | | | | | The optimist will point to the fact that Thielen caught five TDs in the red zone last season and that Kirk Cousins will surely look Hock's way more now that the veteran receiver has landed with the Panthers. But Thielen was an elite red-zone route-runner and as sure-handed of a pa s-catcher as you can get for a guy on the doorstep of his mid-30s. He caught 66.7 percent of all targets in the red zone and 74.3 percent of the balls thrown at him from the opponents' side of the field.2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS | | | | | By comparison, Hockenson caught only 55.6 percent of his red-zone targets on the season and 63.6 percent of looks between the opponents' 49 and the red zone. If Jordan Addison works out like we think he might opposite J-Jets, it's po sible Cousins looks Hockenson's wayle s, not more. It's also po sible that Hockenson draws more attention after he hauled in 60 catches for 519 yards in just 10 games last year.2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR): | | | | | | Look, we get the appeal we just also understand that Hockenson's numbers as a Viking last season might look better than he actually is as a pa s-catcher. He probably won't sustain the volume that he enjoyed in that 13-win dream of a regular season. What we're trying to say is that Hock is a good tight end po sibly a very good one being drafted like he's a great one.2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY: | | | | If your goal ahead of the draft is to obtain a great tight end, you're going to want to draft Travis Kelce in the first round or Mark Andrews in the third/fourth. If your goal is to get a high-upside guy at value, wait a little bit for Dallas Goedert or target Kyle Pitts in hopes of a bounce-back season. If you're looking for a couple of sleepers and hoping one of the two will Dennis Rodman Jersey pan out, look to Zach Ertz or Jake Ferguson. But Hockenson at 46 overall? Hard pa s just like the majority of Cousins' attempts last season.
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